“Why are you running after draws?” Instead, try to win the lottery.” When it comes to betting, a piece of advice like this is what you receive when you unbosom your preference on draw results. The draw is seen as a result determined primarily by chance (good or bad, depending on who you support) and not by design, especially since all football leagues modified their point system to award three points for a win and just one point for a draw.
That’s what the majority of bettors believe. But this is not the case. If you’re disciplined enough and follow certain rules during your analysis, you can detect draw results with an efficient draw betting strategy and make a consistent long-term profit.
In football, how accurate can you predict a draw แทงบอลออนไลน์?
Here are four recommendations on how to rapidly determine which games are most likely to finish a draw.
- Four Football Prediction Tips:
xG(Expected Goals) is the greatest place to start when seeking a draw. When betting or trading on football, Expected Goals is a highly useful instrument. It provides a clear idea of how teams are doing leading up to the game and how many goals are predicted between the two teams.
Infogol is the site I use for this since it includes everything I need. As you can see in the image below, it contains everything you could want in a fixture. A total goal is a useful tool for trading the over/under 2.5 goals market, but team goals for and against is particularly useful for determining which games are more likely to end in a draw.
Possession and time frames are the next two issues to consider. It is significantly simpler to forecast a draw for a short period of time and then trade out than it is to predict a draw for the entire 90 minutes. This is when possession and time constraints come into play.
For example, in the first leg of a huge European game away from home against the favourite, we are significantly more likely to witness a cagey start with few opportunities early. This opens up the possibility of trading the draw price.
- Finding A Football Draw Using Betting Odds
The over/under 2.5 goals market is one of the most important indications when looking for a draw in football. Look for games with low under 2.5 goal odds, since this indicates that the market isn’t anticipating many goals. The lower the number of goals, the greater the likelihood of a draw. You can also utilise the Correct Score market to your advantage; watch for games with lower-than-usual odds for 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines.
These games will most likely be between two evenly matched mid-table teams.
- Why a mid-table position?
Because the teams towards the top of the standings will have more scoring firepower upfront, we’ll see more goals, which implies fewer chances of a tie. For example, if we have 11th vs. 12th and both clubs are poor scorers, we’re far more likely to see a draw in that game, and the over/under 2.5 goals market will lead you.
You’ll also want to know what each team’s game plan is. For example, does a draw benefit both parties? There have been a few famous examples of this in the past, such as when Manchester United won the league in 2011 against Blackburn, who needed a draw to remain up as well. Both teams were content with a draw and saw no cause to press forward late in the game.
Another notable example is Denmark and Sweden, which both advanced to Euro 2004 and knocked out Italy thanks to a draw.
They are two well-known examples, although as previously said, there are many occasions where teams are content with a draw. In crucial games at the conclusion of the season when a draw is all that is required, especially in the first legs of huge European games when the favourite is away. Remember that you just need to identify a tiny window to trade the draw price rather than anticipate a draw across 90 minutes, and each week you’ll see a plethora of examples of when teams are willing to play for a draw.